I didn’t get the metaphor/reference at first, and I thought you meant selling shovels to clean up the shit after the mess they make. 😅
I listened to the co-founder (ex-CEO?) of Stable Diffusion on a podcast recently and he talked about how as everything gets more efficient, cost will go down. He was talking more in regard to employers replacing different employees with AI and how that happens, but do you think that could impact investments?
in 2026 i do think we are going to see companies try to wrap each employee up with separate agents. some will fail and other will succeed, i the chips run either way
Makes sense, I guess I was thinking there would need to be less chips? But it makes sense that they would get cheaper to use and then get used more often, now that I pause to think that through a little more.
this may be the case, but i think it’s offset by increased adoption and more complex scaling laws. even if we can get more efficient, the growth left is more than double or triple what we have.
but who know! maybe scaling will max our as models become more efficient from breakthroughs similar to deepseek?
Thank you so much Fritz, it’s really means a lot to me you took the time to read and reply!
I’m also quite tempted after researching so much for this article. Sounds like you’re doing a great job, this is such a fast moving space I have trouble keeping up myself!
The amount of times I’ve gotten half way through a post and a new update hits and delays me is too many to count! I do hope that silver lining is real for sure:)
An extraordinarily insightful and detailed breakdown of what's going on with the AI buildup. I'm no expert but I can't see a flaw in your argument(s). If I were a younger man--and I didn't think the market would tank due to government mismanagement unrelated to technology--I would be dumping my piggy bank into AWS and NVidea as fast as the shekels poured. Now, clearly, that's no way to invest, but that's postulating I were a younger man. When I was a younger man, I bought Yahoo.
There will be a bottleneck in software implementation on the user end as overlarge behemoths like Microsoft try to pivot on the user end to take advantage of what new resources they have. That will be slow going, because they're stuck with an interface paradigm that doesn't do well with change. But in markets like Generative AI on the graphics side, wait till they make Photoshop and Affinity Designer over from scratch to let regular folks try their hand at being Rembrandt. Ditto for Apple Logic and Reaper.
This, unfortunately, has real aesthetic consequences for the visual and musical arts world, but it will certainly shake up the sharks on the business side, so there's a silver lining there at least. Besides, all the good music acts (except in jazz and bluegrass) are retired anyway.
Thanks for diving deep enough to make me think, without fusing too many brain cells. I'm really too old to keep up. But it's fun to try.
The irony is we are investing in our own demise. The vast and numerous data centers are not for AI they are for the AI driven management of tokenised assets and the data between every financial transaction and the associated data of who when how and why. They are out own digital prisons.
Finally someone is talking about why every one and their grandma is starting an AI startup.
Love it haha. Just waiting the the perfect opportunity:p :)
I didn’t get the metaphor/reference at first, and I thought you meant selling shovels to clean up the shit after the mess they make. 😅
I listened to the co-founder (ex-CEO?) of Stable Diffusion on a podcast recently and he talked about how as everything gets more efficient, cost will go down. He was talking more in regard to employers replacing different employees with AI and how that happens, but do you think that could impact investments?
baahahah i like your metaphor as well lol.
in 2026 i do think we are going to see companies try to wrap each employee up with separate agents. some will fail and other will succeed, i the chips run either way
Makes sense, I guess I was thinking there would need to be less chips? But it makes sense that they would get cheaper to use and then get used more often, now that I pause to think that through a little more.
this may be the case, but i think it’s offset by increased adoption and more complex scaling laws. even if we can get more efficient, the growth left is more than double or triple what we have.
but who know! maybe scaling will max our as models become more efficient from breakthroughs similar to deepseek?
And, look at energy supply. No juice, no tech. All of this lives in a building. After the centers are built, the lights have to stay on.
Really good point. I think energy might actually be one of the big bottlenecks U.S. critical infrastructure faces.
Of course, Metallica would befriend a group called Suicidal Tendencies.
Nuts! I'll be in a different hemisphere on the 19th. Oh Well...
🎸 🔥 Sode note, saw them live last year and they still got it!
When do we get a ToxSEC ETF?
Brilliant! Love it lol. My life’s calling was right there.
Great post! :)
Thanks Erich! Appreciate it!
Thank you so much Fritz, it’s really means a lot to me you took the time to read and reply!
I’m also quite tempted after researching so much for this article. Sounds like you’re doing a great job, this is such a fast moving space I have trouble keeping up myself!
The amount of times I’ve gotten half way through a post and a new update hits and delays me is too many to count! I do hope that silver lining is real for sure:)
Too funny I post this and the night before Meta announces 600 billion new infrastructure investment.
Looks like my piece hit its mark!
Take a look at my thoughts on the AI bubble, and where the cash is going.
I think they just want to compete with OpenAI's Stargate project $500Billion.
Nvidia stock just went up again from that.
Like 5 Trillion isn't enough.
I don’t doubt it! Feels like everyone is one upping each other lol. And chip makers are winning either way.
Yep Nividia for the win
🔥🔥🔥
An extraordinarily insightful and detailed breakdown of what's going on with the AI buildup. I'm no expert but I can't see a flaw in your argument(s). If I were a younger man--and I didn't think the market would tank due to government mismanagement unrelated to technology--I would be dumping my piggy bank into AWS and NVidea as fast as the shekels poured. Now, clearly, that's no way to invest, but that's postulating I were a younger man. When I was a younger man, I bought Yahoo.
There will be a bottleneck in software implementation on the user end as overlarge behemoths like Microsoft try to pivot on the user end to take advantage of what new resources they have. That will be slow going, because they're stuck with an interface paradigm that doesn't do well with change. But in markets like Generative AI on the graphics side, wait till they make Photoshop and Affinity Designer over from scratch to let regular folks try their hand at being Rembrandt. Ditto for Apple Logic and Reaper.
This, unfortunately, has real aesthetic consequences for the visual and musical arts world, but it will certainly shake up the sharks on the business side, so there's a silver lining there at least. Besides, all the good music acts (except in jazz and bluegrass) are retired anyway.
Thanks for diving deep enough to make me think, without fusing too many brain cells. I'm really too old to keep up. But it's fun to try.
Long live machine
The future supreme
Man overthrown
Spit out the bone
— Spit Out the Bone, Metallica
Metallica sold out Auckland’s Eden Park for their concert tomorrow night (Wednesday, 19 November). They'll be joined by Suicidal Tendencies.
The irony is we are investing in our own demise. The vast and numerous data centers are not for AI they are for the AI driven management of tokenised assets and the data between every financial transaction and the associated data of who when how and why. They are out own digital prisons.